Lee JuCom
Lee JuCom2025-10-01 11:57

Interesting signal 👀

Maartunn points out that retail demand for Bitcoin dropped to -5% over the past 30 days — the lowest level since July. In simple terms, smaller investors ($0–$10K transaction sizes) are stepping back and showing less activity.

What this could mean:

🔻 Short term — weaker retail demand often coincides with corrections or sideways action, since retail provides liquidity and momentum for rallies.

🟢 Long term — periods of retail exhaustion can actually be constructive, as smart money (institutions, treasuries, whales) tends to accumulate when retail backs off. This sets the stage for stronger moves later.

In other words, retail pulling back reflects caution and fatigue after volatility, but as long as institutional inflows remain strong, it doesn’t necessarily break the bigger bull cycle.

#cryptocurrency #blockchain #JuExchange

39
0
Background
Avatar

Lee JuCom

2025-10-01 11:57

Interesting signal 👀

[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Maartunn points out that retail demand for Bitcoin dropped to -5% over the past 30 days — the lowest level since July. In simple terms, smaller investors ($0–$10K transaction sizes) are stepping back and showing less activity."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"What this could mean:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🔻 Short term — weaker retail demand often coincides with corrections or sideways action, since retail provides liquidity and momentum for rallies."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🟢 Long term — periods of retail exhaustion can actually be constructive, as smart money (institutions, treasuries, whales) tends to accumulate when retail backs off. This sets the stage for stronger moves later."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"In other words, retail pulling back reflects caution and fatigue after volatility, but as long as institutional inflows remain strong, it doesn’t necessarily break the bigger bull cycle."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""},{"type":"topic","character":"cryptocurrency","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"blockchain","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"JuExchange","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "}]}]
JU Square

Disclaimer:Contains third-party content. Not financial advice.
See Terms and Conditions.

Related Posts
⚜️ Ju.Com Education Series: A Primer on AI + Crypto | Part 7[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Two big developments have recently stirred market sentiment. First, Google’s new AI model Gemini was heavily hyped before launch—its IPO book was reportedly over 20x subscribed—signaling strong investor appetite for a U.S. home-grown “crypto exchange concept.” After listing, it jumped 32% before suffering a sharp pullback, but there’s no denying Gemini shook the market."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The second is NVIDIA (NVDA.O) taking phased equity stakes in OpenAI, with a total planned investment of $100B and an initial $10B tranche."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The message behind both is crystal clear: AI has become the dominant narrative in global capital and tech, while crypto, as another fast-moving innovation track, is actively seeking points of fusion with AI. From capital flows to applications, from hype to real deployments, AI + Crypto is no longer a distant vision—it’s a new track forming at speed."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Put simply, AI and crypto naturally intersect across data, compute, and value transfer: AI needs data and compute; blockchains can offer decentralized compute markets, verifiable data provenance, and tokenized incentive mechanisms. Crypto needs fresh application narratives; AI fits that bill. Hence “AI + Crypto” has become the new hot wind drawing in capital, founders, and speculators alike."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"But key questions remain:"}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Where exactly do AI and blockchains fit together?"}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Are AI + Crypto projects a long-term trend or short-term hype?"}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"How should everyday users understand this emerging space?"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Below is a clear primer on the logic, use cases, opportunities, and risks of AI + Crypto."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Why AI and Blockchain Fit"}]},{"type":"numbered-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"The Value of Data\nData is AI’s fuel; blockchains excel at ownership and transfer. In Web2, data sits with giants. Blockchain enables user data ownership and access control (via wallets and DID), and even token incentives for contributing training data—making personal data as an asset possible."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Marketizing Compute\nTraining models requires massive compute, currently concentrated in NVIDIA GPUs, Google TPUs, etc., at high cost. Blockchains can coordinate decentralized compute networks, pooling idle resources into an “Airbnb for compute.” Anyone can rent out compute for tokens; AI gets cheaper, more flexible capacity."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Incentives & Collaboration\nAI model development is resource-intensive. Token economics offer a global incentive layer: issue tokens to coordinate developers, data providers, and compute contributors—addressing the Web2 problem where a centralized company captures most value."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Trust & Transparency\nAI’s “black-box” problem looms large. Blockchains’ transparency and immutability add verifiability to training and inference. In the future, you could audit which data a model used and how it was trained, with guarantees against tampering."}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"AI + Crypto Use Cases"}]},{"type":"heading-three","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"heading-three","children":[{"text":"1) DeFi: AI-Driven Smart Finance"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"DeFi replaces intermediaries with code; AI makes it smarter."}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Smart advisory: Instead of guessing or following KOLs, AI can scan tens of thousands of pools and markets in real time and tailor strategies to your risk and account size."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Risk management: AI flags anomalies—e.g., whale hopping, sudden flow spikes—giving early warnings on protocol stress."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Automated trading: Open data + model access let individuals run AI-assisted quant strategies. Set risk rules; let AI generate and execute while you sleep."}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Tomorrow’s wallet won’t be static—it will act like a personal AI finance copilot."}]},{"type":"heading-three","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"heading-three","children":[{"text":"2) NFT & Creation: From Static Collectibles to Dynamic Interaction"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Wave 1 NFTs were avatars; AI ushers in dynamic creation."}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"AI art + NFTs: Mint characters that evolve with each issuance—boosting collectability and interaction."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Music & writing: AI generates tracks, lyrics, texts; creators tokenize works and automate royalties in smart contracts, avoiding platform over-taxation."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Gaming: AI crafts unique NPCs, maps, or storylines per player; these assets can be tokenized and traded—forming new in-game economies."}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"So AI + NFT turns a JPG into a living, tradable, interactive digital organism."}]},{"type":"heading-three","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"heading-three","children":[{"text":"3) AI Agents on-chain: Your “Digital Twin”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Hot topic: AI Agent + Wallet. Give AI a wallet and rules; it executes for you."}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"No time to watch markets? Agent rebalances."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"DAO voter fatigue? Agent votes per your preferences."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Airdrop chores? Agent farms routine on-chain interactions—even across multiple wallets."}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"If wallets are Web3’s entry, Agent + Wallet may be the next super-app doorway."}]},{"type":"heading-three","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"heading-three","children":[{"text":"4) Decentralized Compute Networks: Fuel for AI"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Compute is AI’s chokepoint. Projects like Render, Bittensor, Akash build decentralized compute networks."}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Households can plug in GPUs for token rewards."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"AI teams rent capacity cheaply without buying hardware."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Token incentives drive network growth."}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"If AI is the new oil, decentralized compute is both refinery and marketplace."}]},{"type":"heading-three","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"heading-three","children":[{"text":"5) Security & Compliance: AI as Web3’s Gatekeeper"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Web3 is opportunity-rich but risk-heavy. AI can guard the gates."}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Security: Detect phishing, fake addresses, even smart-contract backdoors. Imagine an AI pop-up: “Warning: this contract can drain funds.”"}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Compliance: Support AML via flow analysis; automate KYC checks; cut costs."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Regulatory fit: Help projects adapt to jurisdictional rules and avoid red lines."}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"AI won’t just create wealth—it will protect it."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Bottom line: AI is already penetrating every corner of blockchain—from DeFi and NFTs, to Agents, compute, and security."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"AI + Crypto: Key Terms"}]},{"type":"bulleted-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"AI: Systems that learn, reason, and decide like humans."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Smart Contract: Auto-executing code on-chain."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Machine Learning (ML): Core AI discipline enabling models to learn from data."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Deep Learning: Neural-network-based learning powering modern big models."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"LLM: Large language models (e.g., GPT, Gemini) that understand/generate text."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Data Labeling: Curating structured datasets for training."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Compute Network: Decentralized GPU/TPU markets for AI workloads."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Decentralized Storage: e.g., Filecoin, for datasets/model weights."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"On-chain Identity / DID: Verifiable identities to personalize AI."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"AI Agent: Autonomous agent executing tasks (including on-chain)."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Generative AI: Creating text, images, music, code, etc."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Privacy-Preserving Computation: Cryptographic methods to protect training data."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Cross-chain Protocol: Bridges interoperability for data across chains."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Sentiment Analysis: AI infers investor mood for trading signals."}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Narrative: The investment storyline—here, AI × blockchain as a growth vector."}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Conclusion: The Long-Term Value of AI + Crypto"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"There will be hype in the short run, but over time AI and crypto genuinely complete each other. AI needs decentralized compute and data; crypto needs new use cases and narratives. Their convergence is a natural experiment."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"As a user, ignore day-to-day noise and see the arc: the internet is becoming more intelligent and more decentralized. AI + Crypto may be the crucial puzzle piece on that road."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"\n"},{"type":"topic","character":"cryptocurrency","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"blockchain","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"JuExchange","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"AI","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"Crypto","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "}]}]
Interesting signal 👀[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Maartunn points out that retail demand for Bitcoin dropped to -5% over the past 30 days — the lowest level since July. In simple terms, smaller investors ($0–$10K transaction sizes) are stepping back and showing less activity."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"What this could mean:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🔻 Short term — weaker retail demand often coincides with corrections or sideways action, since retail provides liquidity and momentum for rallies."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🟢 Long term — periods of retail exhaustion can actually be constructive, as smart money (institutions, treasuries, whales) tends to accumulate when retail backs off. This sets the stage for stronger moves later."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"In other words, retail pulling back reflects caution and fatigue after volatility, but as long as institutional inflows remain strong, it doesn’t necessarily break the bigger bull cycle."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""},{"type":"topic","character":"cryptocurrency","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"blockchain","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"JuExchange","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "}]}]
📈 Market Overview (01/10/2025)[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🔸BTC: $116,337"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🔸ETH: $4,297"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🔹Fear/Greed: 49 (Neutral)"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🔹BTC.D: 58.83%"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🚀 Bitcoin is pushing toward $117K, riding momentum from a strong September (+5.2%) and Q3 (+6.3%). The next big resistance sits near $117.5K — a breakout there could open the path to new ATHs."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"💡 Still, liquidity dynamics remain tricky. Heavy long positions are stacked just below price, and some analysts warn that BTC could dip to “flush” leverage before continuing higher."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🥇 Meanwhile, gold hit another all-time high at $3,895/oz, reviving the BTC–gold correlation. Historically, Bitcoin has lagged gold by weeks before catching up, and some traders now see conditions aligning for a rotation from gold into BTC."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"In short: Bitcoin looks strong, but with liquidity traps lurking below, the next few sessions will show whether bulls can flip $117.5K into support — or if another shakeout comes first."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""},{"type":"topic","character":"JuExchange","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"Bitcoin","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"cryptocurrency","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"blockchain","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"finance","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "}]}]
💥 Bitcoin’s Rare September Gains Point to Explosive Q4[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"September has a reputation for being brutal to Bitcoin — but this year is different. BTC is set to close the month up ~4.5%, and history shows that when September ends in the green, Q4 tends to deliver fireworks."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Data from previous cycles (2015, 2016, 2023, 2024) shows that a positive September was followed by average Q4 returns of ~53%, with October usually acting as the launchpad. In those years, BTC rallies ranged from 45% to 66%, often leading to new highs. If the pattern holds, we could be looking at $170K BTC before year-end."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"On-chain signals back the bullish case:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🟡 Spot Taker CVD flipped positive for the first time since July → stronger buy pressure building."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🟡 Coinbase premium index shows US investors accumulating aggressively in Q3."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Of course, past performance isn’t a guarantee, but seasonality has been one of the most consistent drivers in Bitcoin’s history. Combine that with strong spot demand and thinning supply — and Q4 might just be the stage for the next leg up."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""},{"type":"topic","character":"cryptocurrency","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"Bitcoin","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"JuExchange","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"blockchain","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "}]}]
🟠 Let's break down what a government shutdown actually is and why it matters now.[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"What it means?","bold":true}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"A government shutdown occurs when the US Congress fails to pass a budget to fund federal agencies. Without a spending bill, government departments are shut down, workers are furloughed, and the release of important economic data (like inflation or NFP) is delayed."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Why now?","bold":true}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"October 1 marks the new fiscal year, and if lawmakers can't agree, a government shutdown will begin. That's exactly what happened — the shutdown has begun. Democrats are pushing for social programs and benefits, while Republicans — led by Trump — want a \"clean\" funding bill without those costs. For Trump, it’s also a political weapon: to pressure Democrats, create gridlock, and show toughness."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Market Impact:","bold":true}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🟡 Economic Data: Delayed data means the Fed is acting rashly, making rate decisions less predictable."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🟡 Volatility Premium: Investors demand more safety → volatility spikes."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🟡 Economy: Each week of government shutdown costs about 0.1–0.2% of GDP."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🟡 Assets: Gold typically rallies, stocks tumble, and the dollar reacts nervously."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"Cryptocurrency:","bold":true}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🟡 Short-term: the government shutdown could put pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin, as investors reduce risk."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🟡 Long term: Ironically, government dysfunction often strengthens the argument for decentralized assets. Plus, if the Fed sees a weaker economy, more rate cuts are likely — which means more liquidity flowing into the market."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""},{"type":"topic","character":"JuExchange","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"cryptocurrency","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"blockchain","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"technical analysis","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"Finance","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "}]}]
📉 Market Overview (2025/09/23)[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🔹BTC: $113,158"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🔹ETH: $4,214"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🔹Fear/Greed Index: 43 (Fear)"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"🔸BTC.D: 58.53%"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"💵 Yesterday brought one of the year’s largest liquidation events — over $1.8B in longs wiped out, with ETH and BTC positions leading the carnage. More than 370K traders were liquidated, dragging total market cap down by $150B to $3.95T."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"⚖️ Analysts argue this was less about fundamentals and more about leverage: altcoin positions were especially overextended, triggering cascading liquidations. While BTC briefly dipped under $112K, major assets have found short-term support."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"📈 Technically, some expect more pain ahead. A possible retest of $105K–$100K, with the 200-day MA near $103.7K, could flush out weaker hands before setting the stage for a year-end rally."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"For me, this looks like a classic reset — leverage washed out, sentiment shaken, but the broader bull structure remains intact as long as macro easing continues."}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""},{"type":"topic","character":"cryptocurrency","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"blockchain","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"JuExchange","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"MarketOverview","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "}]}]